What can we learn by examining their training data? How this post came to be It began as a happy coincidence. I landed a project dealing with cycling data and it was perfectly aligned with my passion for sports analytics. My interest in sports analytics also isn’t new; I’ve been in touch with the evolution …
Ride Insights of Professional Road Racing Cyclists and Young Prospects Read More »
In this post, we will improve our original optimization of the Johnson-Cook (J-C) material model parameters by considering the adiabatic heating of the material. Why bother? Firstly, there are materials with true stress-true strain dependencies that the J-C material model cannot describe adequately. Some materials exhibit a peak in the true stress-true strain dependency for …
Applying a genetic algorithm to find the best fit of a material model to experimental stress-strain curves for aluminum alloy 6061 in peak-aged condition. Why I find it important I started my career doing simulations for a metallurgical company. Misfits between experiments and simulations were a (stressful) regular occurence, and I spent a lot of …
Thought meanderings coupled with experiments in pursuit of filling own optimization knowledge gaps. Motivation The past year served me optimization problems more often than I feel comfortable admitting, and we’re not only talking about the casual hyperparameter tuning here. It stretched from optimizing prices for a car rental company to choosing optimal parameters for a …
Unveiling the Optimization Wizardry of Hyperopt and RBFOpt Read More »
An attempt to go beyond the usual standings table. This article is the analysis part of applying the PageRank algorithm to rank sports teams (coming soon). What do we mean by ranking NBA teams? It is sorting them in order according to a metric used. A metric is a number that describes some aspect of …
Ranking NBA Teams Based on Past Results and Opponent Quality Read More »
Short answer: somewhat yes, but probably not enough to bet profitably. Long answer: keep reading. In this post, I’d like to show an example of using simple team statistics to predict NBA games’ outcomes. These predictions are coupled with scraped odds, and it is shown if such a simple method can earn you money in …
Can Team Stats Help in Predicting NBA Games’ Outcomes More Accurately? Read More »
In this post I would like to share an approach I use to backtest if a betting strategy or automated model performs profitably on past data or not. You have this wonderful idea about how to finally make your betting endeavor profitable and you think no one in the history of mankind has ever thought …
Recently I’ve found an interesting paper that predicts winning NBA teams for each game. Despite looking for betting simulations or experiments where it were shown how these predictions relate to some baseline value and how they can (not) generate consistent profits, such information was nowhere to be found. What is more, this is certainly not …
How often do bookies get it right and why a bettor should care: an NBA example Read More »
